Military insights: Canada and Poland

With Gdańsk now being the 5^th largest port in the EU, experiencing a 177% rise in cargo since 2014, Poland’s logistical capabilities are diversifying from land to sea; where it had traditionally been a continental logistics hub for Europe rather than a maritime power.

However, with the expanding investment into its Baltic Region and the expansion of Gdańsk and Świnoujście ports, it is becoming easier for Canadian companies to trade with Poland.

Similarly, this expansion has also increased Poland’s naval capabilities and their presence in the Baltic region. Having the highest defence spending out of any NATO member i (4.48%), and Canadian investment in Poland being primarily defence-oriented, Canada is well positioned to continue investing in the Polish market.

Recent agreements with Sweden, which enhanced their military and economic ties; should drive Canada to follow suit through its key role in NATO, who has been aiming to deter Russian advances in the region.

With Poland’s growing investment in its northern region, paired with strategic partnerships between the two countries, Canadian businesses have an opportunity to continue promoting Polish military growth, whilst expanding trade with Poland thanks to its increasing logistical capabilities.

With the primary focuses of Canadian business being in these fields, we are likely to see continued growth of Canadian investment in the country and Poland's military, in turn further bolstering the Canada-Poland axis.

The European Political Summit in Yerevan reflects the broader political shift in Canada’s role in international cooperation, which is creating a growing number of investment opportunities across the Atlantic, particularly in the aerospace and defence industries including key players such as Pratt and Whitney Canada, Magellan Aero and Galvion.

Moving beyond its traditional cross-border projects, Ottawa has changed its focus to across the Atlantic, as the first non-European country to attend the summit. A logical entry point to capitalise on this shift is Poland, where bilateral trade has doubled since the implementation of CETA in 2017.

Polish GDP has grown at ~3.5-4% annually, more than double the EU average of around ~1-2%. With 60 Canadian companies already active in the Poland, Canadians are well positioned to capitalise on the strengthening of relations to benefit from this increasingly attractive market.

The demand is most visible in sectors which are already in place - namely energy, aerospace and security - which play a crucial role in supporting Ukraine, a key talking point at the summit which established areas overlap in interest between the two countries.

Canada’s commitment to contribute Can$270 million to the Ukraine focused NATO-led program which provides it with military provisions highlights that long-term demand in logistics and supply chains will continue to expand in the region throughout the conflict and reconstruction efforts, such as the work of TIU Canada, who have built multiple solar power projects throughout Ukraine and Poland.

Through continued cooperation in these sectors, Canada’s move toward Europe is creating more stable investment pathways in strategic partners like Poland who offer a more predictable and stable market

The Pentagon’s decision on May 4^th to halt the planned deployment of 4000 troops to Poland last minute, despite preparations being underway, signals a broader a shift of Washington’s military priorities. The significance of this is sharpened by earlier discussion of the removal of 5000 troops from Germany for publicly disagreeing with the White House.

However, the case of Poland carries greater significance since it has remained publicly aligned with Washington and therefore suggests that even strongly aligned European partners can no longer safely assume American support considering Trump’s approach to let Europe “fend for itself”.

As US security guarantees become less predictable, Canada is emerging as Poland’s most valuable strategic partner across the Atlantic. For Ottawa, the payoff is clear, as tighter cooperation with Warsaw strengthens Canada’s role in European security, new opportunities open in defence innovation as countries are forced to reduce their dependence due to unpredictable U.S. behaviour.

This reality is accelerating Europe’s shift to a more self-reliant posture and encouraging frontline states such as Poland to strengthen ties with stable partners such as Canada.

Although U.S. officials have since framed the decision as a delay rather than a permanent cancellation, this development still exposes the broader realignment of American priorities, underscoring a significant degree of uncertainty for the geography of Europe’s security system.

This shift matters equally for Warsaw and Ottawa. As Poland’s military capacity and regional importance grow, Canada’s expertise in security and military innovation make it a natural counterpart for Warsaw. Closer ties with Poland solidify Ottawa’s role in coordinated European defence, whilst becoming a reliable partner for trade and strategic alignment in an increasingly unstable transatlantic environment.